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Based on climate scenarios from the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) and Bank of England, Finanstilsynet has analysed two possible pathways for the Norwegian economy.

In the first scenario, the transition to a low-emission society starts immediately and takes place with no major costs to the real economy. In the alternative scenario, the restructuring starts later and is characterised by a sudden and disorderly transition both in Norway and internationally. This heightens the risk of misinvestment and a fall in the value of existing production equipment. Finanstilsynet's calculations indicate that in such a scenario, Norwegian banks will suffer significant losses on corporate loans. Estimated losses are nevertheless considered to be manageable.